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Spatial dynamics model of land use and land cover changes: A comparison of CA, ANN, and ANN-CA

Register: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Sistem Informasi

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Title Spatial dynamics model of land use and land cover changes: A comparison of CA, ANN, and ANN-CA
 
Creator Dede, Moh.
Asdak, Chay
Setiawan, Iwan
 
Subject Cirebon’s peri-urban; Logistic regression; LULC changes; spatial dynamics
 
Description Land use and land cover (LULC) changes through built-up area expansion always increases linearly with land demand as a consequence of population growth and urbanization. Cirebon City is a center for Ciayumajakuning Region that continues to grow and exceeds its administrative boundaries. This phenomenon has led to peri-urban regions which show urban and rural interactions. This study aims to analyze (1) the dynamics of LULC changes using cellular automata (CA), artificial neural network (ANN), and ANN-CA; (2) the influential factors (drivers); and (3) change probability in the period 2030 and 2045 for Cirebon’s peri-urban. We used logistic regression as quantitative approach to analyze the interaction of drivers and LULC changes. The LULC data derived from Landsat series satellite imagery in 1999-2009 and 2009-2019, validation of dynamic spatial model refers to 100 LULC samples. This research shows that LULC changes are dominated by built-up area expansion which causes plantations and agricultural land to decrease. The drivers have a simultaneous effect on LULC changes with r-square of 0.43, where land slope, distance from existing built-up area, distance from CBD, and accessibility are significant triggers. LULC simulation of CA algorithm is the best model than ANN and ANN-CA based on overall accuracy and overall accuracy (0.96, 0.75, 0.73 and 0.95, 0.66, 0.66 respectively), it reveals urban sprawl through the ribbon and compact development. The average probability of built-up area expansion is 0.18 (2030) and 0.19 (2045). If there is no intervention in spatial planning, this phenomenon will decrease productive agricultural lands in Cirebon's peri-urban.
 
Publisher Information Systems - Universitas Pesantren Tinggi Darul Ulum
 
Contributor National Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN)
 
Date 2021-06-15
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer-reviewed Article
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier https://journal.unipdu.ac.id/index.php/register/article/view/2339
10.26594/register.v8i1.2339
 
Source Register: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Sistem Informasi; Vol 8, No 1 (2022): January; 38-49
Register: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Sistem Informasi; Vol 8, No 1 (2022): January; 38-49
2502-3357
2503-0477
10.26594/register.v8i1
 
Language eng
 
Relation https://journal.unipdu.ac.id/index.php/register/article/view/2339/pdf
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2022 Moh. Dede, Chay Asdak, Iwan Setiawan
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0